Climate change and the web of a clockwork spider

Joseph Lewis is Head of Policy at the Institution of Environmental Sciences, working to promote the use of the environmental sciences in decision making. Joseph leads the delivery of the IES Policy Programme, standing up for the voice of science, scientists, and the natural world in policy.

Joseph has ten years of experience in public policy, including in Parliament and the charity sector. He is particularly passionate about science communication and the role it can play in shaping environmental decisions.

As humans, we love big moments.

There’s something very appealing about the idea that everything can change in a crucial moment, getting us back on track or solving some unsolvable problem.

It isn’t how the real world works. If there’s a problem worth solving, the chances are that it’s tied up in complex systems, and complex systems don’t change overnight. It takes time, and you need to work on it every day of the year, not just during the big moments.

As we watch COP30 and hope for a big moment in the fight against climate change, it should already be clear that it isn’t going to happen.

We need to empower local action, and we need a ‘systems of systems’ approach.

What is a systems of systems approach?

Imagine a clockwork spider in the centre of a silk web. The web is a tapestry of complex connections, each interlinked with one another to create both a home and a trap. Every strand that the spider weaves is the result of a clockwork process: gears and cogs that move it forwards and dictate its every action. It’s a system of systems, complex to its core.

The same applies to big issues like climate change: even a relatively settled issue like renewable energy sits within other complex systems:

• Deploying renewables relies on grid connectivity, which is linked to planning and resilience issues
• Switching to renewables is tied up in economic systems, both for consumers and their energy providers, which are linked to policy decisions and behavioural change
• Long-term resilience to cascading failures also relies on battery storage and the wider state of electrification, which can lead to single points of failure if not properly addressed

Put simply: if we want to create lasting change, we need to understand systems, as well as the other systems they are linked to, or nested within.

The good news? We already can. Environmental science and systems thinking are the keys to unlocking an understanding of systems. We can also use modelling to unpick the complex corners of the spider’s web. Then using AI, digital twins, and systems mapping, we can start planning interventions, so that green finance and local plans can be targeted to the most effective action.

The truth is that facing complexity now makes the future much simpler. We cannot hide from that challenge.

For more information about how a system of systems approach can push climate action forward, read our message to COP30: Delivering change in a complex world.

Ethny Childs, Head of Communities and Partnerships at the IES, said “It is clear that for a true system of systems approach we cannot rely on a single field or discipline to create the solutions we need for a sustainable future. Providing opportunities for collaboration across those working in the environmental sciences and beyond is therefore a key focus for the IES. 

Our member-led Communities are a platform for connecting and uniting professionals from across sectors and fields for interdisciplinary knowledge exchange and development of solutions that support thriving people, a healthy economy, and a flourishing environment.”

What has happened at COP30 so far?

We are coming towards the end of COP30 now, and though there have been few big moments, there has been reasonable progress on a number of issues: 

• The future of climate COPs: Delivery challenges have been a common point of commentary around COPs for several years. The COP30 Presidency has acknowledged this and placed reform on the agenda. This has included the proposal for a Global Climate Council, linked to the UN General Assembly, to improve coordination and accountability, as well as Brazil’s Multilevel Governance Solutions Acceleration Plan to support alignment between national ambition and local delivery, in line with the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP).
• Adaptation in focus: As the world faces 1.5 or more degrees of warming, adaptation and resilience have been key focus points. In particular, accelerated adaptation measures and a new framework for nature finance were announced by the Multilateral development banks; a Joint Statement on Water and Climate Action was adopted, highlighting resilience challenges; a key event was held to spotlight the role of Indigenous Adaptation; and the Fostering Investible National Planning and Implementation initiative was launched to help transform National Adaptation Plans into investable, finance-ready projects.
• Making money move: Finance has remained high on the agenda to facilitate delivery. The Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance published a new report setting out a pathway to mobilising $1.3 trillion USD of climate investments in developing countries per year by 2035. The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage rapidly opened a call for funds, but only a handful of commitments have been made so far. Additionally, Principles for Taxonomy Interoperability were published to support joined-up action and the Network for Greening the Financial System made a Declaration on the Economic Cost of Climate Inaction.
• Small shifts to facilitate action: There have been a handful of minor developments aimed at facilitating further action, such as the Country Platform Hub to provide information, finance, and technical assistance; a draft framework on climate literacy (pdf); and the Future Fuels Action Plan, which sets out several actions to support the shift towards sustainable fuels in line with the proposed Belém 4X Pledge on Sustainable Fuels.
• Innovative answers: COP30 has also been a platform for several innovation announcements, including the launch of the Green Digital Action Hub and AI Climate Institute, the world's first open-source AI model for agriculture, and Oxford’s Nature’s Intelligence Studio. The Buildings Breakthrough put out new standards for sustainable and resilient buildings, while a new Global Initiative on Jobs & Skills for the New Economy was launched to accelerate workforce development and social inclusion.

COP30 is not yet over, but has it delivered for climate action?

If we are waiting for big moments, we probably won’t get them at this year’s summit. Public dissatisfaction with the process is clear, particularly from those who are likely to be most affected by climate change, or who have not had a strong voice in negotiations. 

However, there are still important developments taking place, and lots of these individual announcements have the potential to tweak at the edge of the spider’s web.

The next step will be to take climate action forward every day of the year. We need to rise to that challenge.

What next? Key messages for climate action

Regardless of what happens at COP30, we need to keep moving forwards. The responsibility of climate action belongs to all of us, not just international diplomats. 

Ahead of the summit, the IES launched a briefing on COP30, as well as a report, Delivering change in a complex world, which highlights 10 key messages for climate action:

1. Fight for a better future, not just to survive
2. Facing complexity now makes the future simpler
3. Focus on better services to create more value
4. Do it the right way, don’t do it twice
5. Doing more costs less
6. Work together, share successes
7. Make it fair, make it just
8. Plans need to add up, to deliver our ambitions
9. Embrace an era of local climate leadership
10. Don’t stop until it’s done

Read our COP30 briefing and our key messages for more information.

UK delivery: the Carbon Budget (and Growth) Delivery Plan

Back in the UK, the Government’s long-awaited revisions to the Carbon Budget Delivery Plan were published at the end of October. The plan has been renamed the ‘Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan’, in line with the Government’s core objective. 

As you will have seen on our website this week, the IES loves a good rebrand, but what’s new in the revised plan?

• The new plan provides the legally-required commentary on decision making and risk, providing greater clarity on how the Government views the uncertainty associated with policy delivery.
• The revised plan was published alongside several additional documents, including a technical annex, a response to the latest report from the Climate Change Committee, and a Methane Action Plan, which brings together existing policy commitments and their expected contribution to tackling the greenhouse gas.
• Along with the updated name, the focus on growth and sustainable investments is clear in the new plan. Published alongside the update, a prospectus for investors sets out the case for increased private investment that aligns with the delivery plan.
• At the technical level, many of the projected contributions to reducing emissions have been revised. In some cases, predominantly in power and energy efficiency, a greater contribution is now expected based on the successes of implementation so far. In other cases, such as for electric vehicle uptake and ambitions around peatland restoration and woodland creation, the projections are lower, indicating that policy has not been as successful as expected at realising change or that the Government’s focus has shifted elsewhere.

All the details of the Government’s latest commitments and projections are available in the new Carbon Budget (and Growth) Delivery Plan.

How is the IES taking a systems of systems approach to climate action?

One of the purposes of the IES is to unite science and people to resolve environmental challenges. We connect experts through our Climate Action Community, which champions professionals in climate action, promoting the work of experts and evidence to drive change. 

As part of that work, we published 10 key messages for COP30. In summary, we set out our vision for climate action following COP30:

“We could fail, but we won’t. This is when we choose to succeed.

We have a better future to believe in, so we aren’t scared by complexity. We know that it costs less if we act now, so we take an integrated approach and focus on the services that create real value for communities. 

We work together on solutions, agreeing clear goals and plans to achieve them, which helps us make the transition fair for everyone. 

When the discussions are done, we trust local communities to translate agreements into action, then we don’t stop until the work is done, delivering every day of the year. 

It’s ambitious, it’s challenging, but this is what it takes, and we need to choose to make it happen.”
-Delivering change in a complex world, Institution of Environmental Sciences

Get involved: if you want to support the work of the IES to stand up for science and nature, become an affiliate, or if you’re an environmental professional, join the IES. 

• Find out more about the IES Climate Action Community and how you can join the IES
• Read our briefing on COP30 and climate change or more articles from Essential Environment
• Take the next step towards delivering change in a complex world and how you can support our key messages
• Catch up on our ROAD to COP30 roundtable discussion series

If you want to find out more about environmental policy or the training we offer for members, please contact Joseph Lewis, Head of Policy (joseph@the-ies.org).

Bibliography and further information

• COP30 official website | UNFCCC
• Delivering change in a complex world | The IES
• COP30: Climate briefing | The IES
• COP30: Roads and roadmaps | The IES
• Thousands march outside COP30 summit in call for action | BBC
• Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan | GOV.UK
• Progress in reducing UK emissions | Climate Change Committee
• A quick summary of the UK's new climate and growth plan | Green Alliance
• Response to the Government’s Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan | Climate Change Committee

Header image credit: © Gunta | Adobe Stock